This summer, we have seen a series of dramatic natural disasters around the world. Just in the last few weeks, we have had serious flooding in central Europe, Amazon is on fire due to a combination of drought and arson courtesy of beef farmers, and the recent hurricane Helene was one of the strongest ever in the southeast US.
These used to be called the natural disasters of a century. Now, these types of natural disasters are so common they happen every few years or even every year.
PREDICTED CLIMATE WEIRDING AND NATURAL DISASTERS
These are not natural disasters of the century. We are in a century of natural disasters.
It should not be a surprise to anyone. Models developed in the 1970s closely predicted the climate changes we are seeing today. In the 1980s, Norway had a fictional documentary series set in the future describing how climate change impacts the world, and we are living in that world now.
Earth has a thin atmosphere. Our civilization is pumping gasses into this atmosphere that we know makes our atmosphere function more like a greenhouse: Sunlight is converted to heat when it hits the Earth and the greenhouse gasses trap this heat. This heats up and brings more energy into the oceans and atmosphere which, in turn, leads to more extreme climate and weather.
That’s what we are seeing now.
GLOBAL ECOLOGICAL OVERSHOOT
Climate change is one expression of an underlying issue: our global ecological overshoot.
We have a global ecological footprint that’s far larger than Earth. We need more than one Earth to sustain our collective use of natural resources. That’s the real issue, that’s what we need to do something about, and that requires a thorough transformation of our whole civilization.
Climate change is one of many consequences of this overarching issue of global ecological overshoot. Others include biodiversity loss, soil degradation, water scarcity, ocean acidification, pollution, climate migration, food insecurity, deforestation, and invasive species.
This is the first century in a series of centuries and millennia with huge changes in the living system we are a part of that we call Earth.
WILL GET WORSE
All of this will, of course, get worse. We are just seeing the beginnings of it.
Scientists have predicted the collapse of the Amazon, the collapse of life in the oceans, the change of ocean currents, epidemics and pandemics, stronger and more frequent droughts and flooding, human mass migrations, conflicts over natural resources, food scarcity, and much more.
I suspect we will also see more of the conflicts between those who see the need for change and those who do not, which is peaking the US these days and will likely get much worse there.
DENIAL
There are several types of denial going on here.
Denying it’s happening
A few still deny it’s happening, although that’s a position that’s so clearly at odds with reality that most of these have taken a new position.
They say it’s all part of natural cycles, it has nothing to do with human activity.
As it gets more serious, their next position may be that we are all in it for ourselves and we have to deal with it as best we can as individuals and nations. There is no need to focus on collective and systemic solutions. There is no need to take a global perspective.
Denying what’s asked of us
There is another type of denial, and that is among those of us who acknowledge the crisis.
Yes, there is climate change. Yes, it’s caused by our civilization. Yes, it’s serious.
And yet… Someone else will take care of it. Politicians will do what’s required. We can make some peripheral changes and that will do the trick. We just need some new amazing technology. It won’t be that bad. It won’t impact me. I can live my life much as before. I can keep voting for the same politicians.
This is a denial of the underlying cause: our global ecological footprint and overshoot. It’s also a denial of the all-encompassing and thorough systems changes required. Our whole civilization, including our worldview, needs to undergo a profound transformation. That involves you and me and all of us.
Denying we are ecology
Some still see nature as separate from us. They live in denial of the interconnectedness of all life.
What happens with the Earth and our ecosystems happen to us. It’s not distant. It’s not other.
It’s what we are. We are ecology.
If you care about anything, you care about ecology since everything we are and live and care about depends on healthy ecosystems and healthy planetary systems.
Note: It’s a week later (Sunday, October 6, 2024) and I see reports on tropical storm Milton which will hit Florida late Wednesday as a major hurricane. It’s already described as a hurricane of a century for Florida, mainly due to being fed by the unusually warm water in the Gulf of Mexico.
It’s projected to head straight for Tampa where my wife has relatives. After I mentored that an unusually severe hurricane is headed straight for their area, she contacted them. Their reason was: “We are not going to evacuate. We’ll stay here and pray. We have hurricanes every year.”
Yes, you have hurricanes every year, but you have never experienced anything like this one. Prayers are not going to help you, unless you pray for some common sense.
Of course, they may be ok if they live higher up and further inland but why take the risk? Why stay when this will be something beyond anything anyone alive today in Florida have experienced?
If I were them, I would not only evacuate, I would seriously consider moving away from the coastal areas of Florida.
Note 2: It’s now Tuesday. I have watched and read a few updates on Hurricane Milton. The European sources tend to include a section on the unusually warm waters in the gulf and the models that show a connection between climate change, warmer oceans, and wetter – and possibly stronger – hurricanes. (See, for instance, the BBC article How is climate change affecting hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones?) Unsurprisingly, quite a few US sources tend to leave this out. Meteorologists are familiar with the connection, but they decide – or have been told – to leave it out or downplay it to avoid alienating science deniers. Audience numbers are more important than crucial information about our ecological crisis.
I also see that Ron DeSantis, the Trumpist Florida governor, does not answer calls from the White House and said “nobody could have predicted that it would reach category 5” even if that was predicted from the beginning based on the excellent forecast models we have today. These models, by the way, are based on the same kind of science that the climate models are based on. Maybe that’s why he doesn’t want to acknowledge their accuracy.